The combaination between delphi and scenario methods in future studies Literature review

The combaination between delphi and scenario methods in future studies - Literature review Example In doing this therefore a variety of models are used. Two basic models are used on which this discussion is going to be based on: the Delphi technique and scenario planning. The Delphi technique and scenario planning The Delphi technique is a kind of survey that makes use of the intuitive knowledge of experts in a given field. This technique is therefore flexible and provides a wide range of both qualitative and quantitative results which are important for planning. The technique involves rounds of surveys in which experts are asked questions concerning a given topic. Their varied opinions are then analysed and extremes are generated. The experts with these extreme opinions are asked to explain the reasons as to why they settled for the opinions (Armstrong, 2001, pp. 127-129). The rounds continue in this manner until a consensus is achieved. Feedback is very important in the whole process which must take place at the end of each round. Scenario planning on the other hand has also rec eived a lot of attention from scholars with very little consensus on the exact meaning of the term. Cutting across the major definitions of scholars it is possible to say that scenario planning is seen as a strategic management tool that is used to describe sets of future environmental conditions which are uncertain and upon which decisions have to be made to address them. However there is a strong agreement among scholars that scenario planning is not a prediction but rather a tool that makes visible the large scale forces that are usually uncertain due to the ever changing nature of the world so that a planner can recognize them and act on them on the verge that they do happen (Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003). Combining the Delphi technique and Scenario planning It is of great importance that before combining the techniques a thorough understanding of the various design approaches is made of both techniques to find out how the Delphi technique can fit into the approach used by the scen ario planning method. The scenario planning method has various approaches and this is because of the various schools of thought that are in existence. The technique actually involves a number of approaches each with stages that range between six and ten. There are three approaches that have been used widely and these are: the intuitive logic, trend impact and cross impact approaches. However later on, the last two approaches were combined by Bradfield et. al (2005) into one method called the probalistic approach and introduced the la prospective school as the third school in scenario planning (Bradfield, 2005, pp. 795-812). A closer examination of these approaches reveals they have varied stages that could be seen to serve the various interests of the authors with very little consensus on what should be the common approach. Each of these approaches is seen to work in the same manner with the other though there exist slight variations. Nowack, Endrikat & Guenther (2011: 1606) in thei r research identify one generic approach that cuts across all the three schools and which was built on the generic foresight approach proposed by Bishop et. al. The approach is divided into six stages for it to be complete and includes two main phases of scenario planning which are: scenario development and scenario transfer. In the first phase the planner sees various states of the future while in

News Article on Helicopter Deaths in Afghanistan War Essay

News Article on Helicopter Deaths in Afghanistan War - Essay Example The exact number of US soldiers who died is not known, as the US military has not confirmed it, but the news sources reported the number at either thirty or thirty-one. There is some confusion as to exactly how the helicopter really crashed. The helicopter was involved somehow in an attack on a Taliban compound in Wardak Province of the country, but it is not clear how active a role this played in its crashing. According to the New York Times, the helicopter was â€Å"shot down †¦ after a night raid† (Rivera, Rubin, & Shanker). The BBC also says that the helicopter was returning from an attack of some sort, but does not specify the cause, simply stating that it â€Å"went down† and noting that NATO was still investigating the reasons (BBC). Al Jazeera reports a source as saying that â€Å"the helicopter was apparently taking off from a roof of a building during this operation when it then crashed,† although they note that the Taliban was quick to claim they had shot it (Al Jazeera). The three news articles cover this event very differently, both in terms of what related material they discuss and in terms of the language they use to talk about the event. Of the three, the BBC article seemed to be the most neutral both in tone and in its coverage. The headline of this article was â€Å"US special forces Afghan helicopter 'downed' by Taliban† (BBC). ... So, for example, instead of just saying the helicopter was shot down by Taliban, it notes that â€Å"Reports say the Chinook helicopter was shot down by the Taliban† (BBC). By always making a note of its sources and that some statements may not necessarily be correct, the article sounds neutral and does not really take sides or try to make you assume something about the events it reports on. What is also interesting about the BBC article is the range of people it talks to for its information. It does not just get all of its information from American sources, or all of its information from ones in Afghanistan. Instead, there is a more or less even mix of the two, with quotes not only from US Officials and Afghan government officials, but even from the Taliban and just ordinary residents of the area. The version of events that comes out of all this is one in which nobody is really sure exactly what happened yet, and it is implied that we should take what everybody is saying with a grain of salt. The language in the article is also very passive, such as â€Å"An increase in US troop numbers last year has had some success combating the Taliban in the south of Afghanistan, but attacks in the north, which was previously relatively quiet, have picked up in recent months,† (BBC) which leaves off who increased the troops or attacked and does not take sides. In contrast to this, the New York Times article comes down very strongly on the side of the Americans. This is not surprising as it is an American paper. Unlike the BBC article, which starts of by simply stating what has supposedly happened, this article begings with the phrase, â€Å"In the deadliest day for American forces

Review Of The Invisible Man Philosophy Essay

Review Of The Invisible Man Philosophy Essay Social isolation, corruption of power, and moral decline these aspects of the main character are framed in H. G. Wells late nineteenth-century classic, The Invisible Man. This is a science fiction tale of a brilliant scientist who slowly goes insane after discovering how to make himself invisible. The ultimate power of near-perfect impunity of his actions led him to imagine he was god-like. He thought the moral conduct of society and its laws did not apply to him. By isolating himself from everyone, selfishly pursuing fame and fortune, he lost complete touch with his own humanity even before he became invisible. First, by isolating himself from everyone and selfishly pursuing his goal, Griffin did not question the moral soundness of his plan. He was so caught up in the idea that he alone would achieve fame and fortune; that the moral aspect of his plans simply didnt occur to him. He became obsessed with the secrecy aspect as well; he thought that he could accomplish everything without any help from others. Consequently, when he needed money for his grand scheme, Griffin stole from his father, resulting in his father taking his own life in shame. For this horrible deed, he felt no remorse, nor did he want to be troubled by funeral plans or restoring his fathers good name. He considered others as mere tools; a means to his end. His only thought was to simply get back to his beloved experiments. To him, invisibility meant invincibility and impunity to do whatever he wanted no matter what the cost to others. As a result of keeping himself from social contact and not consulting with his colleague s, he was oblivious to the insanity of his actions. In addition to isolating himself and following his own counsel; not considering his fellow man, Griffin denies the responsibility Gods Word gives each of us, that we are indeed our brothers keeper. How far down this moral decline can take someone is a clear message in The Invisible Man. The result of obedience to Gods laws should be to love our neighbor as ourselves and in doing such, we fulfill the law. Throughout the story Griffin slips so far into moral depravity that he considers disobedience of his law makes murder, even mass murder, justified! Therefore, he puts himself above Gods laws. I feel this book has made me reconsider how important it is to consult with other more experienced people when devising life-changing plans. Generally, I consider myself as someone with good moral judgment and basic common sense. However, this does not take the place of experience; which of course, comes with time. Most people, at some point in their lives, have thought of how cool it would be to have a superpower, but after reading this book I realize it might not be as wonderful as it seems. It is a good thing to dream of the possibilities that are yet to be realized; however, at the same time its imperative that we have a measuring stick for defining what is right from wrong and that measuring stick is Gods Word. Knowing this, it struck me as being very odd that Griffin never questioned his judgment or recognized that his brilliant mind was a gift from God and not to be used for his own selfish gain. There is a difference between wisdom and intelligence. Griffin relied solely on h is intellect alone, and did not balance his knowledge with the wisdom of Gods Word. Understanding this, I see the grave mistake Griffin made by trusting solely in his own intellect. Many others around him, whom he had never met, suffered due to his reckless lack of consideration. He failed to question whether or not being capable of doing something gave him the right to do it. Sometimes it is easy to forget that when we really want to do a certain thing, others may be affected by that decision. This story was a stark reminder of that fact. Griffin did not lack motivation, determination, or drive, however, lacking true wisdom, the attainment of his dreams ended in futility in spite of all his hard work. It also strikes me as very disturbing that Griffin at one point realized his folly but, he had in his own mind reached the point of no return: The more I thought it over, Kemp, the more I realized what a helpless absurdity an invisible man wasin a cold and dirty climate and a crowded civilized city. Before I made this mad experiment I had dreamt of a thousand advantagesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦I went over the heads of the things a man reckons desirable. No doubt invisibility made it possible to get them, but it made them impossible to enjoy them when they are got. Ambition what is the good of pride of place when you cant appear there? What is the good of a love of a woman when her name must needs be Delilah? I have no taste for politics, for the black-guardisms of fame, for philanthropy, for sport. What was I to do? And for this I had become a wrapped-up mystery, a swathed and bandaged caricature of a man! In conclusion, we are made in Gods image to be social creatures and to live by His Word. No matter how fantastic an idea may seem, it is important to seek Godly counsel and pray about decisions we make, otherwise we may end up wasting the gifts weve received. Once we start down a slippery slope, it is a whole lot harder to climb back up. Some people never do, like Griffin, and their life ends in tragedy; taking others along with them.

Farmland Industries Inc. Essay -- essays research papers fc

Introduction Today, when we hear the slogans "better farming, better food," or "proud to be farmer owned" one company comes to mind, Farmland Industries. We may think of this of this fortune 500 company as a leading agricultural powerhouse, which it is, however, it was not always that way. Background Farmland Industries Inc. was founded by Howard A. Cowden, who was born and raised in Southwestern Missouri. Cowden started young in the cooperative business by working for the Missouri Farmers Association (MFA). However; in October of 1927, he had resigned from the position of secretary for the MFA and started out on his own. Immediately following, Cowden received the MFA oil contract that previously had been held with Standard Oil Company, and Cowden was now in the wholesale oil business. On January 27, 1928, Cowden Oil Company was founded. This business was moved to Kansas City, Missouri in late 1928. In January of 1929, Cowden Oil Company was dissolved and Union Oil Company (Cooperative) was formed. It was clear that Cowden had planned to do more than just buy and sell oil to local cooperatives. A board of directors was created to run the company, yet Cowden retained full control over the company that he had created. Cowden started recruiting smaller companies to join their cooperative by signing contracts to sell certain amounts of Union’s products. In 1929, Union Oil Company had purchased its first land. "The Two Car Garage," as it is referred to, was the building that they had purchase to become their new home. In 1935, Union Oil Company changed its name to Consumers Cooperative Association (CCA). CO-OP was decided to be its official logo. In October of 1956, CCA moved to their new home on North Oak Trafficway, in Kansas City, and the company was ready for major business. In June of 1961, Howard A. Cowden retired as President of CCA and Homer Young stepped in to fill his shoes. In early to mid 1966, CCA changed its name again. This time to Farmland Industries, Inc., however; they still kept that CO-OP symbol for a trademark. CCA now emphasized much of its business to fertilizer, petroleum and commercial feed. This business only grew and grew for them. "By 1967, Farmland Industries had manufacturing fac... ...nternational consumer needs to be confident that they are getting excellent product at a competitive price. Farmland Industries is the crucial link between these two segments of the market. It is a system that has proven strong for many decades and promises to be strong for many more. WORKS CITED Alm, Rick. "Gamblin’ on the River." The Kansas City Star Almanac. 1996. Cabrera, Mario. Telephone interview. 20 Nov. 1996. Fite, Gilbert C. Beyond the Fence Rows. University of Missouri Press, Columbia, Missouri, 1978. Fite, Gilbert C. Farm to Factory. University of Missouri Press, Columbia, Missouri, 1965. Hartke, Debby. "Farmland’s Harry Cleberg: Agri-marketer of the year." Agri Marketing June 1996: A-D. Tolley, Warren D. E-mail to the author. 8 October, 1996. "Top 125 Area Private Companies-Part I." Kansas City Business Journal 14 June 1996: 20-24. Appendix 1992 Annual Report. The Farmland Cooperative System, 1993. 1994 Annual Report. The Farmland Cooperative System, 1995. 1995 Annual Report. The Farmland Cooperative System, 1996. "We Bring Quality to the Table" The Farmland Cooperative System. 1996: 61 U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995.

Defining Experience

I have always considered myself an open and welcome person who treated everyone fairly. Other people that I knew would often express views that people, who lived in the United States, whether legally or not, should learn how to speak â€Å"our† language. While I tended to agree with them I never gave it much thought, until I found myself in a foreign country, and unable to speak the language. It was there that I learned, not only how it felt to not be able to communicate easily, but to be more tolerant of other people’s non-native speaking. I have always loved to travel with family and friends, and there was no better time than when I was living and working in Serbia. While I worked with people from many nationalities most, if not all, spoke the English language. I took this for granted, and while I made some attempts to learn new languages, I did not try too hard. After a particularly stressful month of work I felt the need to get away from it all, to rest and relax, and to broaden my perspective of the world. I made reservations for six solo days of scuba diving in Croatia. I was excited, nervous, even a little scared of traveling alone. I told myself that I’m 36 years old, have two kids, and lived in another country, so I held my head high, bid my friends farewell and took off. Upon arrival in Croatia I picked up my rental car at the airport in Zagreb. I got on the A1 motorway and pointed the Fiat Punta south towards the small fishing village of Rocogniza. I arrived there late in the afternoon and promptly found the dive shop that had arranged all my accommodations. I settled in and then set off into the village to explore and buy food to prepare for dinner. The sun was shining and felt warm as I parked my car started walking towards the village. I traveled past centuries old houses, a large stone Orthodox Christian church, and into the village. Once in the village I saw the bustle of people coming to and from the outdoor market and the fisher men peddling their catches along the dock. There were people of all ages in the town centre, young kids playing, and elderly people sitting at the cafà ©Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s talking. I walked through the market and saw a very old lady selling fresh fruits and vegetables. I stopped at her cart and she was very warm, with bright eyes, a big smile on her face, and arms opened as if she were going to hug those around her. I said hello to the old lady who only nodded and I realized that she did not speak English. Even though there was a language barrier I was able to purchase the fresh fruit and vegetables that I would need for the next few days. I then walked to the docks and again I was greeted with a warm welcome by the fishermen. I bought several mackerel, red mullet, and bukva, more that I needed, thanked the fishermen and bid them farewell. After making my purchases I stopped at a small cafà © to have a coffee. The waiter Mario, whose brother was always living and working in Kosovo, spoke almost perfect English. I sat at that cafà © for several hours talking with Mario. Mario told me about the people of his village, how they had survived through the war, and how the Croatian people generally loved having foreigners visit their great land. Although I hated for our talk to end, I had to bid Mario farewell, and head out before dark. As I left the village I turned back and looked towards the small fishing village that I had just visited. I thought about the warm and welcoming reception that I had received and that I would always remember the people that I had met. I also thought about those people who come to the United States to either visit or in search of a better life for the families. I vowed to myself that I would learn some of the local language while traveling in other countries. This experience also changed the way that I would interact with people who were in my own country and did not know how to speak what we consider â€Å"our† language.

Am I a Serial Killer

Am I a Serial Killer? Have you ever taken a step back and asked yourself, â€Å"How can someone Just BE a continuous murderer? † Brain damage, environment, and genetic codes are all factors that determine whether an individual may become a serial killer. If you have ever questioned the ability to become an indecisive human being, this may be your route to information. When studying the human brain, Jim Fallon found that the activity and functions of the â€Å"serial killer† brain is extremely different than the â€Å"normal†.Looking at divots nd lines through out the brain, he noticed that these meant that there were issues- brain damage. Brain damage occurs when the brain doesn't completely develop in utero. Then once the child is born and begins to learn, the brain attempts to fix itself, causing damage when not succeeding. Among the studies of the variables, environmental issues have also caused the brain to dysfunction. Things like war, stepping over governme nt guidelines, and over ruling society, all can cause insane amounts of depression, which can also lead to murder or suicide.Seeing that this occurs frequently through out the world, suicide and murders could possibly be a factor of this variable. Inside your genetic code you will find twenty-three pairs of chromosomes. Among these twenty-three oddly placed characters, there is one gene that gets passed down through your mother. This gene causes you to become immune to serotonin. Well, what really causes this immune-ness is when, in utero, the fetus is basically surrounded by serotonin, a chemical induced by the brain to calm you down when angry or upset.Considering that this would cause the child's brain to become mmune to the chemical, the brain will no longer obtain the calming information being sent out by the serotonin chemical. Thus, once angered, the brain does not stop raging on about the situation. On the contrary, people might think that these statements are false. But- co nsidering that the research has already been done the statements are true. So, are you a serial killer? Check your brain, environment, and DNA. You might find that you are a carrier. But Just incase you are, Just because you have a reason to go crazy, doesn't mean you should. By lovebree95